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Benjamin A. Okopnik [ben at linuxgazette.net]
Hi, folks -
Just FYI, I have the minor inconvenience of a hurricane heading for me, and (theoretically) approaching my neighborhood just about the time that I'm supposed to be publishing LG this month. I'm hoping to not have to either a) publish LG from 30,000 feet without a plane or b) miss pubbing on the 1st, but it's looking iffy at the moment.
>From the National Weather Service: FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
So, the current prediction is that around 1000 Zulu on the 31st (i.e., ~3a.m. EST on the 1st), the center of the hurricane - which will be blowing about 75 knots steady and gusting 90 knots - is going to visit my neighborhood (29.9N 81.3W).
On the plus side, I recently bought a large anchor and some chain for it. On the minus side, my engine is down for service at the moment, and getting the boat to a hurricane hole without an engine is problematic, to say the least. I'll be beavering away on that latter problem, and keeping track of Ernesto as it spins its way toward me...
* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * http://LinuxGazette.NET *
Martin Hooper [martinjh at blueyonder.co.uk]
On 28/08/2006 Benjamin A. Okopnik wrote:
> FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W...INLAND > MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. > 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. > 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.
Good Luck Ben - Hope you don't sink!!! 
Benjamin A. Okopnik [ben at linuxgazette.net]
On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 07:25:26PM +0100, Martin Hooper wrote:
> On 28/08/2006 Benjamin A. Okopnik wrote: > > FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W...INLAND > > MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. > > 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. > > 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. > > Good Luck Ben - Hope you don't sink!!!
Thanks, Martin. It's not really so much a question of sinking as of minimizing/preventing damage: with a steel boat and a class I hurricane, my biggest concern is getting the boat into a "hurricane hole" where she a) won't drag her anchors in the coming wind/wave conditions, and b) won't do any damage to herself or anyone else if she does. Given that one of my diesel's injectors just packed up, and I just spent a lot of effort removing them to get them rebuilt, I won't be going too far... I might reinstall the injectors as they are and run on three out of four (*ugh*) just to get to a nearby hole, or I might use my dinghy to tow her (but that's a long way to go with a 15HP outboard motor.)
For some reason, I still don't seem to have these hurricanes trained to come when it's convenient to me. Perhaps I'm using the wrong stimulus?
* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * http://LinuxGazette.NET *
Jimmy ORegan [joregan at gmail.com]
On 28/08/06, Benjamin A. Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net> wrote:
> For some reason, I still don't seem to have these hurricanes trained > to come when it's convenient to me. Perhaps I'm using the wrong > stimulus? >
Ask Kat to look at the top of your head -- maybe you have "hurricane
bait" written there
Seriously, best of luck! Hope you don't need it!
Benjamin A. Okopnik [ben at linuxgazette.net]
On Tue, Aug 29, 2006 at 06:11:34PM +0100, Jimmy O'Regan wrote:
> On 28/08/06, Benjamin A. Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net> wrote: > > For some reason, I still don't seem to have these hurricanes trained > > to come when it's convenient to me. Perhaps I'm using the wrong > > stimulus? > > > > Ask Kat to look at the top of your head -- maybe you have "hurricane > bait" written there
Nothing there but a couple of prehensile antennae. [shrug] Nope, can't find anything unusual.
> Seriously, best of luck! Hope you don't need it!
Thanks! At this point, it looks like it's not going to be anything more than a storm, but even that's less fun than it could be. Well, that's why I pay that big money for those big anchors...
* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * http://LinuxGazette.NET *
Kat [kat at linuxgazette.net]
On Tue, Aug 29, 2006 at 06:11:34PM +0100, Jimmy O'Regan wrote:
> On 28/08/06, Benjamin A. Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net> wrote: > > For some reason, I still don't seem to have these hurricanes trained > > to come when it's convenient to me. Perhaps I'm using the wrong > > stimulus? > > > > Ask Kat to look at the top of your head -- maybe you have "hurricane > bait" written there
Well, I was planning on shaving it for him later today, so I'll see if I can detect any eldritch or mundane sigils of hurricane attraction there. (I presume a google image search will give me all the detail I need for this.)
> Seriously, best of luck! Hope you don't need it!
Thank you. I think out best "luck" is in the geography of St. Augustine itself, but I think that if there's something Ineffable direction hurricanes to Florida, it's just Mother Nature getting cranky about King Jeb, Katherine Harris, and the U.S. refusal to sign the Kyoto accord.
--Kat
Mike Orr [sluggoster at gmail.com]
On 8/28/06, Benjamin A. Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net> wrote:
> Just FYI, I have the minor inconvenience of a hurricane heading for me,
And I thought you were passing out candy canes. You and your
hurricanes! You live on a boat in hurricane country just to attract
attention, don't you.
-- Mike Orr <sluggoster@gmail.com>http://lists.linuxgazette.net/mailman/listinfo/lgang
Benjamin A. Okopnik [ben at linuxgazette.net]
On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 12:46:54PM -0700, Mike Orr wrote:
> On 8/28/06, Benjamin A. Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net> wrote: > > Just FYI, I have the minor inconvenience of a hurricane heading for me, > > And I thought you were passing out candy canes. You and your > hurricanes! You live on a boat in hurricane country just to attract > attention, don't you.
Clearly, it's working: I've attracted one's attention, and now it's on its way.
Besides, you should talk: you work with the people that steer these
damn things. Otherwise, how would you know where to plot their
positions? You don't think anybody believes that "prediction" nonsense,
do you?
(Oh, and your aim sucks. I'm still here, nyah.)
* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * http://LinuxGazette.NET *
Kat [kat at linuxgazette.net]
On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 04:13:22PM -0400, Benjamin A. Okopnik wrote:
> On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 12:46:54PM -0700, Mike Orr wrote: > > On 8/28/06, Benjamin A. Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net> wrote: > > > Just FYI, I have the minor inconvenience of a hurricane heading for me, > > > > And I thought you were passing out candy canes. You and your > > hurricanes! You live on a boat in hurricane country just to attract > > attention, don't you.
Captain, O my captain -
Far be it from me to question you importunately (or perhaps impertinently), but is it really wise to offer such taunt NOAA-ward?
Just curious,
Kat
Mike Orr [sluggoster at gmail.com]
On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 04:13:22PM -0400, Benjamin A. Okopnik wrote:
> Besides, you should talk: you work with the people that steer these > damn things. Otherwise, how would you know where to plot their > positions? You don't think anybody believes that "prediction" nonsense, > do you?
Yeah, I told them to make sure it hits east Florida hardest. Maybe you should move to Mexico. We don't track 'canes down there.
> (Oh, and your aim sucks. I'm still here, nyah.)
We're working on a turbo'cane accellerator that'll make then hit within five minutes of the prediction rather than a week. But it doesn't work quite yet. Hurricanes are just so frustratingly slow in their movements. You can prod them but you can't make them run. Pernicious creatures, they are.
Haha, this reminds me of _Prayers for the Assassin_, which I just reread. In the mid 21st century when the US has split into an Islamic republic and the Bible Belt (the South), an ex-Fedayeen (=special forces) soldier is being hunted by an assassin. They both had the same Fedayeen training so they know each other's strengths and weaknesses, and they continually taunt each other. You'd prob'ly enjoy it, for the dry humor at least if nothing else.
> * Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette *
My, my, Editor *in Chief*. Hope that hasn't swelled your head too badly.
-- Mike Orr <sluggoster@gmail.com>
Benjamin A. Okopnik [ben at linuxgazette.net]
On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 01:33:19PM -0700, Mike Orr wrote:
> > We're working on a turbo'cane accellerator that'll make then hit > within five minutes of the prediction rather than a week. But it > doesn't work quite yet. Hurricanes are just so frustratingly slow > in their movements. You can prod them but you can't make them run.
What, 10-15kt? Dude, that's plenty fast enough for me. Besides, if
they moved slower, they'd run out of energy - and you wouldn't have a
job. So stop bitching.
> Haha, this reminds me of _Prayers for the Assassin_, which I just > reread. In the mid 21st century when the US has split into an Islamic > republic and the Bible Belt (the South), an ex-Fedayeen (=special > forces) soldier is being hunted by an assassin. They both had the > same Fedayeen training so they know each other's strengths and > weaknesses, and they continually taunt each other. You'd prob'ly > enjoy it, for the dry humor at least if nothing else.
Kat and I just spent a little time at the local Barnes and Noble after her motorcycle lesson, and I took a quick skim through it. Yep, fun dialog and an interesting future-world concept (not too implausible, either; Balkanization and polarized hyper-religious theocracies are a possible outcome of the direction the US is being steered in right now.)
> >* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * > > My, my, Editor *in Chief*. Hope that hasn't swelled your head too badly.
[blink] You just noticed? Boy, you're slow. According to my mail archives, I started using it in May 2004.
YOU, however, started using it for yourself on 29 Oct 2003 - so you've
got very little room to talk. Or have you deflated your own head yet?
It doesn't have that effect on me, but since you're claiming it does,
you must have some related personal experience.
* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * http://LinuxGazette.NET *
Mike Orr [sluggoster at gmail.com]
On 8/28/06, Benjamin A. Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net> wrote:
> On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 01:33:19PM -0700, Mike Orr wrote: > > > > We're working on a turbo'cane accellerator that'll make then hit > > within five minutes of the prediction rather than a week. But it > > doesn't work quite yet. Hurricanes are just so frustratingly slow > > in their movements. You can prod them but you can't make them run. > > What, 10-15kt? Dude, that's plenty fast enough for me. Besides, if > they moved slower, they'd run out of energy - and you wouldn't have a > job. So stop bitching.
Actually, I don't have anything to do with 'canes. If you want to run me out of a job, get the US to stop depending oil. Then 80% of the tanker collisions would be eliminated, and nobody would have to clean them up.
> > >* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * > > > > My, my, Editor *in Chief*. Hope that hasn't swelled your head too badly. > > [blink] You just noticed? Boy, you're slow. According to my mail > archives, I started using it in May 2004. > > YOU, however, started using it for yourself on 29 Oct 2003 - so you've > got very little room to talk. Or have you deflated your own head yet?
My head was never inflated.
-- Mike Orr <sluggoster@gmail.com>
Mike Orr [sluggoster at gmail.com]
On 8/28/06, Benjamin A. Okopnik <ben@linuxgazette.net> wrote:
> > Haha, this reminds me of _Prayers for the Assassin_, which I just > > reread. In the mid 21st century when the US has split into an Islamic > > republic and the Bible Belt (the South), an ex-Fedayeen (=special > > forces) soldier is being hunted by an assassin. They both had the > > same Fedayeen training so they know each other's strengths and > > weaknesses, and they continually taunt each other. You'd prob'ly > > enjoy it, for the dry humor at least if nothing else. > > Kat and I just spent a little time at the local Barnes and Noble after > her motorcycle lesson, and I took a quick skim through it. Yep, fun > dialog and an interesting future-world concept (not too implausible, > either; Balkanization and polarized hyper-religious theocracies are a > possible outcome of the direction the US is being steered in right now.)
By the way, the state itself not a hyper-religious theocracy. It's a religious democracy which two groups of extremists are trying to take over. It starts when the Zionists, as it's believed, nuke NYC, DC, and Mecca during the hajj. World opinion turns against Israel, the Arabs overrun it, and the Jews are taken in by Russia. Large numbers of Americans turn to Islam as the only viable ideology left. They divide into Fundamentalists, Moderates, and Moderns according to the strictness of their practice. Die-hard Protestant Christians migrate to the Bible belt, and the civil war settles the border between the Islamic Republic (IR) and the Bible Belt. The Nevada Free State remains independent as a center of finance and sin.
The government decrees equality for Catholics and tolerance of Jews, and thus keeps the country from splitting further. The main police/military units are State Security and the Fedayeen (a kind of special forces). The Black Robes are an unofficial religious police who cane women who aren't covered properly. They supposedly have authority only over Fundamentalists but have started harrassing others. The Old One is a different kind of extremist. He wants to set up a worldwide calphate with himself as leader. Just like bin Laden was trying to do, he says, only bin Laden was an incompetent idiot. His vision is more political than religious.
Rakkim is an ex-Fedayeen shadow warrior (like a covert CIA agent) who had worked in the Bible Belt. Now he lives in the Christian Quarter (sin) in Seattle, owns a nightclub (sin) with music (sin) and dancing (sin). He operates an underground railroad to help those disfavored by the regime -- Jews, homosexuals, dishonored women, etc -- flee to Canada. He was raised by the head of State Security, Redbeard, whose daughter Sarah is a history professor researching the old regime. Sarah finds information suggesting the nuclear attacks weren't done by Zionists but by others who framed them. She flees, her lover Rakkim goes to find her, and the assassin is sent after both of them.
Each of the characters has a different motivation, and a different view of the old regime. Sarah wants the spirit of free inquiry and science back. Redbeard is glad nobody is hungry now. Society seems to function on the surface, but in reality it's living off the remnants of old infrastructure/technology and is not maintaining them.
The book has some flaws. Taxi drivers have bin Laden trinkets on their windshields; a battleship and LAX are named after him. That sounds so offensive and impossible I wonder if the author hasn't thought it through. Adopting a religion with a long and rich history is one thing; calling bin Laden a hero is quite another. Besides, a hero of *what*? Not what the IR government believes in.
Another flaw is, where are the Asians? What happened to all the Buddhists and Hindus? He seems to have forgotten they exist. Did they convert too?
-- Mike Orr <sluggoster@gmail.com>http://lists.linuxgazette.net/mailman/listinfo/lgang
Benjamin A. Okopnik [ben at linuxgazette.net]
On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 07:11:18PM -0700, Kat wrote:
> On Mon, Aug 28, 2006 at 04:13:22PM -0400, Benjamin A. Okopnik wrote: > > > > Besides, you should talk: you work with the people that steer these > > damn things. Otherwise, how would you know where to plot their > > positions? You don't think anybody believes that "prediction" nonsense, > > do you?
If their aim (predicting system[s]) didn't suck, I wouldn't want to twit
them... and there'd be nothing to twit them about, either. Meanwhile,
GFDL/SHIPS/NOCLUE/CRYSTAL_BALL or whatever else they use is mostly a
response mechanism: every time the hurricane changes course, they toss
up another set of paths, each more useless than the last. A comparison
of predicted tracks for 90% of the past hurricanes makes quite a
bemusing study...
They're reasonably honest about it - NHC forecasts include a warning like "NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY" - but that gets drowned in the huge mass of pretty pictures and ALL CAPS OFFICIAL COMPUTERESE of the updates.
I'm not ungrateful for their work... but I do wish that they exposed the guesswork factor in proportion to their actual use of it rather than having it as a tiny footnote.
* Ben Okopnik * Editor-in-Chief, Linux Gazette * http://LinuxGazette.NET *